Carmel, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

014
FXUS66 KMTR 051034
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
334 AM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Fair weather continues over the next several days with cloudy
mornings and clear afternoons. Temperatures around seasonal
normals with a slight warming trend over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 252 AM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025
(Today and tonight)

Key Messages
-Marine layer persists

Overnight satellite fog product once again reveals a solid marine
layer blanketing the coast and inland valleys. A comparison to 24
hours ago also shows better stratus coverage this morning as well.
This makes sense given the deeper marine layer with a depth of
close to 1700-2000 feet per profilers. The deeper marine layer is
likely due to passing upper level shortwave with a slight dip in
500mb heights. Otherwise, overall sensible weather for today and
tonight will be similar to Wednesday. Morning marine layer, which
includes low clouds, fog, drizzle, will gradually roll back to
the coast. Just like Wednesday, coastal areas will not completely
clear given lingering onshore flow. Given the deep push clearing
of inland areas will be a slightly later than yesterday.
Regardless still expecting inland sunshine. Temperatures today
will be seasonably cool with the coast upper 50s and 60s and
interior 70s to near 90. Onshore flow is forecast to peak around
4mb, which will result in breezy to gusty winds again this
afternoon/evening for the coast and any inland valley/gap/pass.
For tonight, marine layer will rush back inland with low clouds,
fog, and drizzle

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 333 AM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025
(Friday through Wednesday)

Key Messages
-Gradual warming trend over the weekend into Tuesday

Heading into Friday we`ll see a shift in the upper level longwave
pattern. A very amplified and wavy jet rides the ridge into the
PacNW before taking a 180 and digging SW into California. The
digging jet will help facilitate the development of a cut-low
over the Bay Area Friday. This low will gradually retrograde or
meander off the CA coast heading into the weekend. As the low
meanders ridging develops inland. While ridging will bring a
warmer weather Friday through Tuesday the nearby upper low will
keep some variation of a marine layer intact. As such, we`ll see a
larger temp spread from the coast to inland areas. Warmest inland
areas will reach the 90s and take a run at 100 degrees Monday and
Tuesday. A cooling trend looks to develop by the middle of next
week with broader troughing developing aloft.

One fly in the ointment will be the pesky upper low developing
over the region with a slight easterly flow aloft. Not all models
show it, but a few of them do hint that the upper low will pull
some moisture in from the east. Additionally, a few of the
convectively hot models (NAM) even generate some MUCAPE over the
N Bay this weekend. Not mentioning any convection at this time and
not even a non-zero chance, but wanted to at least mention it.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1027 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Currently VFR with breezy northwest winds observed at most sites. A
fairly substantial stratus bank is just offshore with CIGs expected
to build in overnight. The marine layer looks to compress to between
500 to 1000 ft overnight which will result in IFR to MVFR CIGs
across portions of the Bay Area. Moderate confidence that LIFR-IFR
CIGs will develop along the coastline impacting HAF, MRY, and SNS.
Fog becomes more likely after 12Z across the North Bay Valleys
tomorrow morning which could result in LIFR conditions at least
temporarily developing there. Winds ease overnight, shifting
southerly to becoming variable at times, before moderate southwest
to northwest winds redevelop during the day.

Vicinity of SFO...Gusty northwest winds will ease overnight before
gradually shifting southerly early Friday morning. Patchy MVFR CIGs
are expected to fill into the SF Bay overnight but this is expected
to be temporary. This is a slightly more optimistic TAF with the NBM
and LAMP guidance indicating that stratus may persist through mid to
late tomorrow morning. VFR conditions return by mid to late morning
with winds shifting more southwest to westerly and strengthening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...CIGs are expected to build back in early
this evening with highest confidence in CIGs arriving between 02-03Z
with some guidance indicating an earlier arrival closer to 01Z is
possible at MRY. Moderate confidence that LIFR CIGs will effect MRY
overnight with low to moderate confidence that LIFR CIGs will impact
SNS. CIGs look to rise between 15-18Z with full clearing expected
after 18Z. Clearing will be short lived with stratus looking to
return just after the end of this TAF period. Moderate onshore winds
continue this evening before weakening overnight, becoming southerly
to variable at times.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1027 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Gale conditions continue over the northern outer waters before
winds  ease early Thursday morning. Breezy to gusty winds and
hazardous  conditions for small crafts will then continue over the
northern  outer waters through late Thursday morning. Breezy fresh
to strong  winds continue within the San Pablo Bay and the inner
coastal waters  from Point Reyes to Pigeon Point as a southerly
coastal jet  develops. Wave heights over the outer coastal waters
will continue  to abate through the end of the week with
significant wave heights  to drop below Small Craft Advisory
levels by Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
X.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea